![]() ![]() “Assets such as the P-8 maritime patrol aircraft or specialist ASW frigates are unlikely to be transferred, and the Ukrainian armed forces would struggle to crew, operate and protect them in any case.” “The platforms involved are too expensive and small in number to be gifted,” RUSI said. The country has minimal anti-submarine warfare equipment or experience, and other priorities for its resources. Should Russia resort to a submarine blockade, Ukraine has few good options. In 2019, “insurance rates in the Strait of Hormuz rose tenfold after Iran’s limpet mine attacks-even though a convoy system was put in place,” the RUSI article noted. The threat of mine and submarine attack would raise maritime insurance rates so high as to discourage trade. Whether Russian subs would actually sink any ships is almost immaterial. ![]() Russian submarines take part in the Vostok 2022 military exercises at the Peter the Great Gulf of the Sea of Japan outside the city of Vladivostok on September 5, 2022. Britain and France were well aware that the “pirates” were German and Italian subs supporting Franco’s Nationalist faction, but the appeasement-minded democracies had a pretext for merely sponsoring a symbolic resolution calling for the pirate subs to be attacked. During the Spanish Civil War, ships bringing supplies to the Spanish Republican government were attacked by “pirate” submarines. Moscow could deny responsibility for any attack-or try to pin the blame on Ukraine-while some Western governments would be happy for an excuse to avoid military confrontation with a nuclear-armed Russia. But mines and submarines are stealthier than surface ships this anonymity allows deniability. Of course, the world would know who was responsible. They could even sink ships with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles. The boats “can clandestinely lay up to 24 naval mines each during a single sortie,” noted the RUSI essay. So far, the Black Sea Fleet’s handful of Kilo- and Improved Kilo-class diesel subs have only been used to fire cruise missiles at Ukrainian land targets.
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